Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
