Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
